Rental inflation cool An the trend of “deinflation” in rental prices may continue. In December, the U.S. rent CPI (rent of
shelter) show a slight cooling, but this cooling was mostly phone number list in the two decimal places. In December, the
rent CPI remain unchang at 0.3% monthonmonth, with little change. U.S. rental inflation follows the
transmission logic of “house prices new leases rental CPI”. Although U.S. house prices indicate that
rental inflation may rebound, the growth rate of the New Tenancy Index (NTRI) releas by the BLS has not fluctuat much, so rental inflation may find it difficult to change the overall “deinflation” process.
The “reflation” narrative is lingering, and in the mium term, attention should be paid to the “relaxation” process of the labor market and Tariff 2.0
To sum up the above, the main reason why US core inflation weaken and fell short of expectations in
December was durable goods inflation, but durable goods inflation may be more of a singlemonth fluctuation.
What upside risks may there be for US inflation in the short term?
The process of “loosening” the US labor market has encounter obstacles, which may increase the
stickiness of service inflation in the mium term. Although the growth rate of average hourly wages of
U.S. residents remain stable in December, leading a empresa quer que você compre indicators of the U.S. job market, such as the U.S.
ISM Services PMI Price Index and the U.S. Small Business Hiring Plans Index, indicate that the U.S. job market is likely to heat up in the short term, which may have an impact on the core nonrental service inflation that the Feral Reserve is most concern about (the most sticky.
The Unit States may still experience slow “deflation” in 2025
With uncertainty mainly coming from Tariff 2.0. As mention above, US inflation may be affect by the
job market in the short term, but from the overall trust review perspective of 2025, there is still much room for
wage growth and core nonrental service inflation to fall, and the job market may turn into an
“antiinflation” driving force in the later period. If the impact of Trump’s 2.0 policy is not taken into account, the base effect may cause the US CPI to fall sharply yearonyear in JanuaryApril 2025, and then rebound slightly and fall back to around 2% by the end of 2025 Rental inflation cool.
